Forecasting the Missouri Valley Conference men's basketball race
12/26/2015 | 12:00:00 | Men's Basketball
CARBONDALE, Ill. - The preliminaries are out of the way, and the Missouri Vally Conference men's basketball race begins full force next week and continues non-stop until the end of February. The MVC recovered in late December to finish 57-58 (.496) against Division I non-conference opponents. The league RPI, though, stands at No. 13 in the nation, four spots below last year's No. 9 ranking, and slipping behind the Summit League and Big West. Only four MVC teams have winning records against Division I. Thanks to ESPN3, I've seen every Valley team play multiple times. Here's how I see the race shaking out.
1. Wichita State (Record: 6-5, RPI: 57, Schedule Strength: 6)
Ignore Wichita State's 6-5 record. Instead look at the RPI and the fact the Shockers have played the sixth-toughest schedule in the country. They've also missed key players to significant injuries (Fred VanVleet, Anton Grady, Landry Shamet), but VanVleet and Grady have returned, and sharpshooter Connor Frankamp just became eligible, making this by far the deepest and most talented team in the MVC. Pardon the pun, but it would be a shock if they don't win the title. Even in a down year for the league, WSU can still get an at-large bid.
2. Evansville (Record: 11-2, RPI: 76, Schedule Strength: 246)
Evansville has a gaudy record, but it missed opportunities to post resume-building wins vs. Providence and Arkansas. Otherwise the Purple Aces have run the table against a relatively soft schedule. They have two of the league's best players in D.J. Balentine and Egidijus Mockevicius. The key for them has been finding a third weapon in Mislav Brzoja, and Jaylon Brown is also having a solid year. The Aces are deeper than they've been in recent years, and while they won't catch the Shockers, they should be able to slip by the Panthers for second place.
3. Northern Iowa (Record: 8-5, RPI: 55, Schedule Strength: 30)
Northern Iowa remains the same superbly coached, finesse team that can beat anyone in the country when its outside shots are falling (see North Carolina and Iowa State). They've struggled when the 3-ball doesn't fall, however, and have not won back-to-back games since November. Wes Washpun is having an excellent year at point guard and Jeremy Morgan is one of the most underrated players in the league. Almost everyone on their roster can shoot from the perimeter. On the downside, they don't have an inside threat, so you can expect them to run hot and cold. The Panthers barely go eight deep and that will matter as the minutes add up.
4. Southern Illinois (Record: 11-2, RPI: 115, Schedule Strength: 285)
A big surprise here, as SIU was picked ninth in the preseason. Anthony Beane is a future pro and will likely finish among the top three scorers all-time at SIU. He is playing at an elite level, but his supporting cast is also better. Sean O'Brien has emerged as a scoring option. Mike Rodriguez is the program's first legitimate point guard since Kendal Brown-Surles. Southern's roster has limitations (no post-up threat, for example) and the weak non-conference schedule is a concern. SIU was the only MVC program that did not play a Power 6 Conference opponent. Still, with the exception of SIUE, they beat the teams they were supposed to beat, which is a major step forward over last year.
5. Loyola (Record: 7-5, RPI: 223, Schedule Strength: 256)
The Ramblers are smallish but skilled and led by one of the league's most gifted guards in Milton Doyle. Devon Turk is a pure shooter and Earl Peterson is a solid point guard. The big question mark for the Ramblers has been their interior play. Forward Montel James has been hurt and forward Donte Ingram is having an off year shooting. If either of those players comes around, they could finish higher. They don't have much size or depth, but that may not be so critical this year in a league where that deficiency is common.
6. Illinois State (Record: 6-7, RPI: 161, Schedule Strength: 69)
The Redbirds have been a disappointment so far. They have a star player in DeVaughn Akoon-Purcell. Paris Lee is a solid point guard. They have length in the front court with MiKyle McIntosh and Deontae Hawkins. Why does this team have a losing record? Part of it is schedule strength, but a bigger concern is the poor shooting percentages they've put up so far. The Redbirds are near the bottom in field goal (.406), 3-point (.297) and free throw (.611) shooting. Something is missing from this team.
7. Indiana State (Record: 6-6, RPI:172, Schedule Strength: 137)
The Sycamores have a solid back court on paper with Devonte Brown, Kristian Smith, Brenton Scott and Everett Clemons. Collectively, they haven't shot the ball well, however, with numbers comparable to Illinois State's. Brown is leading the team in scoring but his shooting numbers are way down from last year. The problem seems to be a lack of help from the front court. If they can find a way to take pressure off their shooters, ISU's guards are good enough to compete with anyone.
8. Missouri State (Record: 4-8, RPI: 237, Schedule Strength: 109)
The Bears struggled through a ridiculously tough schedule to start the season, but then picked up one of the league's signature wins at Oklahoma State. Since then, they've lost 3-of-5, including a home loss to winless SEMO. On the plus side, Camyn Boone is the second-best big man in the MVC behind Mockevicius. Point guard Dequon Miller has been a nice addition, and the Bears have good, young talent in sophomore wing Chris Hendrix and freshman forward Obediah Church. On the downside, this is a young team that has absorbed a bunch of losses and you wonder how that has affected their confidence. The Bears appear a year away from contending.
9. Drake (Record: 5-7, RPI: 285, Schedule Strength: 261)
The Bulldogs have some nice pieces, some really good players. They just need more. Sophomore guard Reed Timmer is one of my favorite players to watch in the league. He's skilled and savvy and would be a Player-of-Year candidate on a better team. Big Ten transfers Kale Abrahamson and Graham Woodward both look like legit Valley talents. However, there's a steep drop-off after those three. Drake has lost some close games to good teams so perhaps there's a light at the end of the tunnel?
10. Bradley (Record: 2-11, RPI: 282, Schedule Strength: 66)
The Braves start four true freshmen and one sophomore, and they are in full rebuilding mode. On top of that, they've played one of the league's toughest schedules with games against Arizona, Virginia, Seton Hall, Mississippi and TCU. At least they are battle-tested. It's a pretty safe bet the Braves will finish in the basement.
More thoughts on the Salukis...my original prediction for the non-conference season was for an 8-5 record, so finishing 11-2 is well above my expectations. I also penciled them in at 7-11 and seventh place in the MVC on my preseason ballot. After watching the Salukis and the rest of the league, I'm comfortable upping my prediction to 10-8 and a fourth-place for SIU. I don't think they are in the top tier with Wichita State, Evansville and UNI, but this team believes it's good, and that's half the battle.
