Southern Illinoise University Athletics
Conference race enters stretch run for Saluki Baseball
09/27/2013 | 12:00:00 | DawgTracker
May 3, 2012
By Scott Gierman
SIUSalukis.com
CARBONDALE,Ill. - Despite being picked to finish sixth in the Missouri Valley Conference preseason baseball poll, SIU has managed to stay within striking distance of first place for much of the season. With three weekends left in the conference season, it appears to be a three-team race between Missouri State, Indiana State and Southern Illinois.
Since the MVC began playing three-game weekend series in 2005, the top two spots in the regular season final standings have been separated by two games or less every year. In fact, in six of the last seven years, the MVC regular-season title has been decided by one game or less.
Once again, there is no runaway in the conference race. Right now, the Salukis are in third place, a game and a half behind first place Missouri State. Indiana State is a game out of first place but are even with the Bears in the loss column.
Here's a closer look at how it will play out and what it will take for SIU to capture its first MVC regular baseball title since 1990.
With a 21-game conference schedule the last two years, the conference champion has had a 15-6 record. Southern enters the weekend with a 9-6 mark, and while finishing the season 6-0 to get to 15 wins would put SIU in great position, they could still have a chance without a perfect finish.
The good news for the Salukis is that they will have some control over their fate when they host Indiana State next weekend. Just as important, the Sycamores host Missouri State the final weekend of the season.
Missouri State will remain 10-4 as they play a non-conference series with Air Force this weekend. After that, the Bears will play three games at home against Evansville before finishing with the Indiana State series. If Missouri State takes two out of three in both of those series, then Southern's only hope to finish a half game ahead of MSU would be to win all six of its remaining conference games. If Evansville can win at least one game against MSU and Indiana State can win the series at home against the Bears, then the Dawgs can afford to lose at least one game the rest of the way.
Of course, the Salukis will still need to leapfrog the Sycamores, which they can do by winning the series next weekend in Carbondale. Indiana State's conference picture is less clear at this point because at 8-4 on the year, they are the only team in the top three of the standings with three conference series remaining. The Trees will know a little more about themselves after a series with Wichita State this weekend.
Getting past the hypothetical scenarios and how many wins SIU will need, let's discuss what the Salukis have done and will need to continue to do to get those wins.
Everything starts with pitching, and for SIU every weekend in the conference schedule has started with a great performance from Friday starter Cody Forsythe. In five conference starts, he is 3-1 with a 1.14 ERA, and he is two walk-off losses away from being 5-0 in those five starts. In fact, in the two starts in which he recorded his lone conference loss and his lone conference no-decision, he allowed one earned run in 15.1 innings.
Another key for SIU this season has been the defense. Early in the season, it was subpar. In its first six conference games, Southern Illinois committed 10 errors, which led to eight unearned runs. At Wichita State in the second conference series of the year, SIU moved Jake Welch from shortstop to second base, slid Donny Duschinsky from third base to shortstop and brought Austin Montgomery in from right field to play third base.
Since the move, the Salukis' defense has no longer been a glaring weakness. In SIU's last nine conference, games, they have committed nine errors, which have led to five unearned runs. This season the other seven MVC teams have committed 99 errors in 95 conference games, or slightly more than one per game. So while SIU may not be loaded with Gold Glovers, the defense has over the last month been on par with the rest of the league.
One area where SIU has been better than most of the league this season is hitting. Southern is hitting .297 as a team and leads The Valley in conference hits, runs and home runs. There is no reason to believe the offense will slow down. Even when MVC Player of the Year and triple crown candidate Chris Serritella had the day off on Tuesday, SIU managed to hang seven runs on Illinois with three home runs in the game.
The Salukis have also had great success against the lower half of the MVC this season. SIU is 7-2 against sub-.500 MVC teams this season and 2-4 against teams with a .500 or better record in the conference. Southern will need to keep that success going against the 5-8 Redbirds at Illinois State this weekend. If so, then there will be even more to discuss on the topic of the conference race.
